The Collaborative Institute | Building Connections

April 1, 2011
by The Collaborative Institute for Oceans, Climate and Security (CIOCS)
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Learning from the Tsunami in Japan

While the recent earthquake off the coast of Japan and subsequent tsunami cannot be linked directly to climate change, the aftermath provides important lessons for the countries worldwide regarding climate-induced disasters.

As Christopher Mims at Grist points out:

“Melting ice masses change the pressures on the underlying earth, which can lead to earthquakes and tsunamis, but that’s just the beginning. Rising seas also change the balance of mass across earth’s surface, putting new strain on old earthquake faults.” As ice caps melt and oceans rise, we could see many more earthquakes as fault lines become more stressed.

As Bill McGuire states:

“It shouldn’t come as a surprise that the loading and unloading of the Earth’s crust by ice or water can trigger seismic and volcanic activity and even landslides. Dumping the weight of a kilometer-thick ice sheet onto a continent or removing a deep column of water from the ocean floor will inevitably affect the stresses and strains on the underlying rock. …[While] not every volcanic eruption and earthquake in the years to come will have a climate-change link… [As] the century progresses we should not be surprised by more geological disasters as a direct and indirect result of dramatic changes to our environment.”

Following the Japanese earthquake and tsunami, the National Oceanic and Atmosphere Administration released an article warning all members of coastal communities to be prepared for tsunamis, as well as be knowledgeable about the warning signs and warning systems already in place.* March 20-26, 2011 was declared Tsunami Awareness Week and the NOAA generated a website dedicated to Tsunami Awareness.

Watch following video on Tsunami Awareness, from NOAA:

Tsunami Awareness | NOAA

To learn more about Japan and its history of earthquakes and tsunamis, especially in the region recently affected, check out this interview between Yale e360 and Geophysicist Lori Dengler.

Interested in disaster relief efforts in Japan? Google.org offers “Google Crisis Response,” aggregating a variety of information such as donation opportunities and alerts into accessible location. The Google page can be found here.

March 4, 2011
by The Collaborative Institute for Oceans, Climate and Security (CIOCS)
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Playing Games with Climate Change

The online game, Global Warning, was recently launched in January 2011 by the National Security Journalism Initiative. It presents a fun and interesting way to learn about the human security implications of climate change, and the difficult decisions that policy makers face– and it is hard!

Players are challenged to test their knowledge in four regions of the world that are vulnerable to climate change. The player will be asked some questions that lead to a scenario where they’ll consider the various factors that would help determine the outcome of a climate emergency. Players can find out if their decision-making considerations match those of a diplomat, an aid worker, a scientist or an economist.We like it for several other reasons as well:

It is a Student-lead Initiative:
It was initiated by a Medill School of Journalism graduate student team that began publishing its findings on the national security implications of climate change online, using text, videos and interactive stories to “tell the story.” In a three-month investigation, a team of Northwestern University student reporters has found that the nation’s security establishment is not adequately prepared for many of the environmental changes that are coming faster than predicted and that threaten to reshape demands made on the military and intelligence community. This is despite the fact that the Defense Department has called climate change a potential “accelerant of instability.” (Press Release, Meddill National Security Zone)

It is Useful and Relevant:
Some within the U.S. government are bracing for climate change as one of the next major threats to national security. Is the U.S. ready for the coming risks? That is the question 10 reporters examined for this project.

Give your decision-making abilities a spin and let us know what you think of this entertaining and informative online tool!

February 28, 2011
by The Collaborative Institute for Oceans, Climate and Security (CIOCS)
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Managing the Risks Associated with Climate Change

Recently, UN Executive Secretary Christiana Figueres linked current unrest in areas like the Middle East and North Africa to the effects of climate change, such as drought, short water supplies and decreased crop yields. Ms. Figueres stated, “It is alarming to admit that if the community of nations is unable to fully stabilize climate change, it will threaten where we can live, where and how we grow food and where we can find water. In other words, it will threaten the basic foundation – the very stability on which humanity has built its existence.” Ms. Figueres emphasized the need for the global community to take urgent action on climate change. Factors such as more frequent and severe natural disasters, heat waves and drought, widespread disease and rising sea levels, among others, will mean that “climate change, especially if left unabated, threatens to increase poverty and overwhelm the capacity of governments to meet the basic needs of their people, which could well contribute to the emergency, spread and longevity of conflict.”

Research supports Ms. Figueres’ argument regarding the increased risks associated with climate change. For instance, cholera was believed to be a human-driven disease but was recently linked to environmental changes as well. By examining this deadly disease from a new angle, it may be possible to “help minimize cholera’s damage,” even potentially leading to an early warning system for cholera.

Climate change also has consequences on food supply- driving at the very nature of human survival. In Guyana, the government and rice farmers are preparing themselves for the future by examining the food security issues. By cultivating different varieties of rice and moving rice fields, Guyana is trying to stay ahead of the climate change curve.

Given the complex effects of climate change, and large amount of uncertainty regarding the future challenges, there is wisdown in planning ahead. The PEW Research Center released a new report that makes this very argument. In Degrees of Risk: Defining Risk Management Framework for Climate Security, the report recommends using “a risk management approach to break logjams and tackle climate change.” This risk management approach has been valuable for national security and the military and easily applies to the effects of climate change. “Risk management provides a systematic way to consider threats and vulnerabilities, ‘knowns and unknowns’ and to take steps to minimize risk.”

Although we may not know the exact effects that will be coming as a result of changing climate, we can prepare for the worst, as well as work to reverse the changes. Jay Gulledge and Nick Mabey put it this way:

“When it comes to climate change, uncertainty must not be a barrier to action. Uncertainty doesn’t mean we know nothing; just that we do not know precisely what the future may hold in a given place at a given time. But we have a good handle on what the risks of climate change look like. Will the oceans rise by two feet or six? Will global average temperatures rise by two degrees, or five? Other weighty public policy decisions– from military procurement to interest rates to financial system regulation – are taken under far higher uncertainty than exists when it comes to climate change science.”

Preparation is a necessary and vital response to changing climate. Human security may prove to depend upon the plans and actions that societies take now.

February 9, 2011
by The Collaborative Institute for Oceans, Climate and Security (CIOCS)
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Putting Climate Change in the Center

Recently, we’ve been hearing more about how recent extreme weather can contribute to a global food crisis. While it’s difficult to attribute any one major weather event to climate change, Paul Krugman reminds us that it’s necessary to examine the overall pattern.

“As always, you can’t attribute any one weather event to greenhouse gases. But the pattern we’re seeing, with extreme highs and extreme weather in general becoming much more common, is just what you’d expect from climate change.”

Essentially, extreme weather is contributing to major food shortages as crops are destroyed. Water scarcity, along with growing populations, climate change, soil erosion and other factors, place an enormous amount of pressure on production. As the supply dwindles, demand is staying the same or increasing, leading to higher prices around the globe.

Now, we’re seeing links between rising food prices and food shortages, and political instability. Rising food prices are believed to be at least a partial trigger for the recent unrest in Tunisia and Egypt. As countries experience extreme weather, they’ll be more likely to decrease or halt export of vital staple items in order to take care of their own first. Just last summer, Russia stopped wheat exports as fires ravaged the country. These extreme weather events will not always stop short of completely decimating a country or its crops. What happens when extreme weather events prevent countries from providing for its citizens? Will people start leaving their home countries to fulfill basic needs, in search of a safe haven from the destruction? Experts say it’s possible.

“Forecasts of global migration related to environmental factors range from 150 million to 300 million people by the middle of this century, the Asian Development Bank said Monday, and the Asia-Pacific region is expected to be at the epicenter of this trend.”

At the center of these debates about human security, food shortage and political instability lies an important factor: climate change. As the earth continues to change, we’ll see increasing instances of extreme weather events, leading to more destruction and greater instability.