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Given Turkey’s membership to NATO and the privileges that come with this membership, Russia will likely not choose to escalate the current crisis vis-à-vis NATO following the downing of the Russian jet by the Turkish Air force. However, short of a military response, Russia has a number of other highly effective tools that can ‘hurt’ Turkey. Russia provides over 50 percent of Turkey’s natural gas needs. In fact, both Iran and Russia (the two are very close allies in the Syrian conflict) provide more than ¾ of Turkey’s energy needs. Considering the winter months ahead, if Russia cuts off the natural gas, Turkey might face a huge energy shortage and that would surely have a devastating impact on Turkey’s already fragile economy.
Closely related to this issue, just a few months ago Turkey and Russia inked a natural gas pipeline deal – Turkish Stream – that would supply Turkey and parts of southern Europe with a much needed supply of natural gas. Such a project was going to be another ‘notch’ on Turkey’s growing influence in becoming a major energy transportation hub via a web of pipelines running primarily from East to West. Having these webs of pipelines is important, however, if you don’t have gas/oil to fill those pipes, it means nothing; especially if the supplier has other options to transport its products.
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On a different front, the Kurdish issue is Turkey’s most sensitive and destabilizing problem. The so-called ‘peace process’ between PKK and Turkish government is now shattered in pieces just after the June 7th elections. The armed conflict still continues to take lives of both civilians and Turkish security forces. Many Kurdish residents are forced out of their homes to move towards more secure areas. As of yet, there are no positive signs for the warring sides returning to the negotiating table for a new peace plan. Considering the historic close relationship between PKK (Kurdistan Workers Party recognized as a terrorist group by Turkey-EU-US) and Russia, it should not be a surprise to the observers of the region to see increased fighting and instability in Turkey’s eastern and south-eastern provinces between the Turkish security forces and PKK militants. That can only mean a further deepening of the insecurity for Turkey’s citizens across the country.
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